Last Friday was Election Day in Iran. The turn-out was so great that voting had to be extended by three hours in order for the lines to be accommodated. From shop-lined streets in the northern part of Tehran to the most conservative of villages, Iranians exercised their right to vote. The two top-runners in the election were hardliner and current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former prime minister during the 1980s Mir Hossein Mousavi. Mousavi, with the reputation of a reformer surprisingly seemed to appeal to the younger generation of Iranians.
Iranian expatriates casting ballots in Dubai mostly favored Mousavi whom they labeled Iran’s version of Obama. During the campaign, Mousavi indicated he was in favor of ending the attacks against the liberal media and bloggers. He also hinted that he might accept President Obama’s offer to sit down for talks after a nearly thirty year silence between the two countries. Such a dialogue would mean opening talks regarding Iran’s nuclear pursuits, which even Mousavi says is for peaceful purposes. His hopes were dashed, however, when supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini declared incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the leader by a 2 to 1 margin. Mousavi’s supporters took to the streets in protest, but were literally beaten back by Iranian Revolutionary Guard whose leader supports Ahmadinejad.
Although presenting himself as a “reform” candidate, Mousavi’s past dictates show him to be much more the hardliner. In 1981, UPI reported, “Mousavi heralds a more vigorous propagation of the radical Islamic foreign policy of exporting Iran’s revolution.” While attending a demonstration in Tehran in 1987, Mousavi said, “Tomorrow will be the day we step on the Great Satan. Tomorrow is the time for America to see our iron fists.” And a statement issued from Tehran in 1988 read that “Israel should be annihilated,” and that the only means to “achieve Palestinian rights was to continue the popular struggles against Israel.
Following the death of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Mousavi was portrayed as “a leading radical who in the past has competed with Khamenei for primacy in setting government policy pledged subservience, along with his entire cabinet, to the new leader.” Given his past history, it seems the only thing that might have changed under Mousavi, the “reform” candidate was the name of Iran’s president.
With Mahmoud Ahmadinejad having been declared the overwhelming winner on Friday, the only thing that may change in Iran is that the newly-elected president is likely to ramp up his rhetoric against both Israel and the United States. He clearly has the backing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini who is in favor of continuing Iran’s nuclear program. As president, Ahmadinejad only has as much power as Khameini allows him to exert.
Ahmadinejad relied heavily on the conservative bastions such as Qom, where many of the Islamic universities and revered shrines can be found. He appealed to what Americans would call blue-collar voters and traditionalists who supported him in the last election. Calls of tampering have been heard in some locales, but with the absence of international poll-watchers, such charges are hard to prove.
The fiery president has been charged with mismanaging Iran’s reaction to inflation which hovers at 25 percent. Yet during his campaign, he promised more government aid. One can only wonder if Ahmadinejad will face challenges from the people who want more freedom. Iranians have already been warned by the leader of the Revolutionary Guard that if they harbor visions of another “revolution” swift action would be taken to crush their dreams.
No doubt, Ahmadinejad will, with Khamenei’s blessing, continue his defiance against the Western world and forge ahead with a nuclear program. Former Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. and president of the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs Dore Gold addressed the fact that Iran really has only one leader who determines its nuclear pursuits: ‘The key decisions in the nuclear field are taken by the spiritual leader Khamenei, so it doesn’t matter who is elected president. All of the candidates support continuing the nuclear program.”
The Jewish state has come to consider Iran’s nuclear bid as a very real threat given that Ahmadinejad has spent four years in office calling for Israel’s destruction. He has vowed to “wipe Israel off the map.”
According to Prime Minister Netanyahu, Iran is the greatest threat to Israel since the nation was founded in 1948. This is true not only regarding the Islamic republic’s atomic aspirations, but also due to the fact that Iran funds, trains, and arms the fanatical groups that surround Israel – Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Both groups have drawn Israel into wars to defend its citizens. Netanyahu has not ruled out a military strike against Iran’s nuclear sites. He said after a meeting with President Obama in May, “Israel reserves its right to defend itself.”
Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said that even the Obama administration was becoming more wary of Iran’s nuclear program. He indicated that the U.S. and Israel share the same concerns regarding Iran’s reluctance to even discuss its nuclear pursuits.
When I met Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s spiritual advisor in New York City two years ago, he declared to me that his leader would usher in the Mahdi – the twelfth descendant of Mohammad - through an apocalyptic event within three years. That was two years ago.
Early Monday, in a stunning about-face from his initial position, Ayatollah Khameini ordered a probe of the election. Is Khameini, the self-styled “wizard of Oz” who hides behind smoke and mirrors and pulls the puppet president’s strings going to pull the “reform candidate” out of his hat full of tricks in order to appease the Iranian people? Will anything really change in Iran if he does, or will it be the exportation of terrorism as usual?
Michael D. Evans, is the founder of the Jerusalem Prayer Team and the Corrie ten Boom Holocaust Center in Haarlem, Holland. He is a #1New York Timesbestselling author, and is the author ofJimmy Carter: The Liberal Left and World Chaos
